For the US, my guess is: within the next 4 years. Inflation will be insane. Lets hope blue collar can organize and leverage the situation.
So why don’t we just eat the rich? Why can’t we do the gamestop stock thing again at a bigger scale?
That’s an optimistic timeline.
At the current pace I’ll give it till June.
Well, this has been known for decades, the Club or Rome’s report (Limits of Growth) predicted this in the 1970s. Here’s a graphic from 2004:
We need UBI (Universal Basic Income) or people are going to not be able to afford basic commodities any more. We already see working poor, it’s gonna get worse. Demand UBI.
I used to be pro UBI. Now I’m not so sure. The only resilient tool for increased equality is an organized work force that has real economic power. Workers on UBI has no real power and the UBI can be taken away anytime by those in power.
And if AI takes all jobs… Well, lets cross that bridge when we get there. Maybe we simply have to hope for that crypto bro UBI solution. Qualia will be our last currency.
And here’s the latest recalibration, done in 2023, main difference is that pollution just uses co2 level instead of a complex aggregate of pollution metrics.
Your pictured 2004 model may be the BAU model in these charts, not 100% sure, but Recalibration23 is the latest one.
EDIT: Looks like BAU2.
EDIT 2: Ah, didn’t realize who I was replying to, haha. I have apparently successfully evangelized this model to you from that other thread a few days ago.
Still useful for any other readers to see.
…
Socialism or barbarism wasn’t just a catchphrase.
Unfortinately, we chose barbarism… even if a miraculous overthrow of capitalism happened right now… I think it is about two decades to late to avoid a catastrophic collapse in standard of living and loss of life.
Few people are just going to sit and starve. They will steal food directly or turn to other crimes to get money to buy food.
UBW – universal basic work. Jobs for everyone who wants them.
I can think of so many jobs that we don’t have because they make no money, but that would better society as a whole. There should be no reason we can’t… do that.
i guess this depends on whether you see yourself as a person who deserves basic goods, or if you see yourself as a workforce who needs to be told what to do to be happy.
I don’t think we’re going to fix things in any meaningful way. I think we’re watching a big collapse. Not the end of humanity like some want to predict, but very rough times ahead.
I am with you that we should help each other out, and there’s ways to do that. We can feed and shelter people now, and we should, but much more than that becomes infeasible quickly. And I think it will become even less feasible as things get worse.
I think what the other person was saying is… If there’s a way to fix things, to make things better or at least lessen the harm, it’s going to take a lot of people doing a lot of things. Things that aren’t always profitable right away, but pay off later. Better public transit systems, more renewable energy, huge programs replacing the old but crucial infrastructure that brings us clean drinking water, turning useless land into productive fields, and so much more. If we had the political will, we could offer everyone the ability to work on these programs and in return have a better quality of life, while also building a better future.
And to be clear, this isn’t all manual labor. Probably most of it isn’t really manual labor. It’s math, it’s planning, it’s machine operation, it’s coordinating and transporting, it’s organizing and communicating. To solve our problems will require a lot of people with a lot of skills, and if we can encourage the right people to be in the right place, we could solve so many problems and make so many things better.
We won’t, though. But we could.
It’s better for people to feel productive and accomplished than to sit around doing nothing.
You know, revolution is not the same as collapse.
It usually is. Its a high risk gamble that can lead to basically anyghing. And probably that anything will be bad for the poor. Reformism and organized labor is a safer path towards increased equality. But maybe that ship has sailed for the US…
It is for the rich.
For them it is catastrophic collapse of the stonk market and economy with trillions of wealth evaporating overnight.
For us, it is Tuesday.
┏━┓┏━╸ ┏━┓┏━┓╻╶╻┏━┓┏━┓┏━╸ ▋
┃╶┃┣━╶ ┃╶╶┃╶┃┃╶┃┣┳┛┗━┓┣━╶ ▋
┗━┛╹╶╶ ┗━┛┗━┛┗━┛╹╹╶┗━┛┗━╸ ▖
within the next decade?
We’re already most of the way there. Inept, Incompetent, and overtly corrupt governments engraging the population homelessness, unemployment, unpopular immigration and costs of necessities going haywire trade wars brewing, Oh, and World War III is basically already in it’s pre-game show stage with the fighting in Europe.
I’m at the point where Im expecting it any day. the US is just one bad move away from causing an all out revolt, because part of its population rightly thinks that the new admnistration is full of mobsters, tyrants, and fascists.
By the way, Trump wonders if Americans will let him treat them like this and continues to do “his business”
Knock knock open up the door it’s real!
This is why the fascist billionaires are carrying out their great takeover. They know the jig is up and everything’s going to crumble down and no one will escape it.
They just want to rob whatever they still can before they too croak. Thre is no great plan for their survival beyond a few years in an underground bunker, either…
It’s a hilariously incompetent strategy by the rich because they’re more dependent on a functioning society than any other group. You can tell they’re not smart nor good leaders when they build luxury bunkers in New Zealand because those won’t save them from losing virtually (and possibly literally) everything they have. They have everything to lose and the only thing they need to do to keep their wealth and power is to contribute to the society they’re living off of. They’re failing miserably because they lack compassion. It will be their downfall.
Unregulated capitalism in a nutshell.
It is why they are hastily trying to turn the calendar back to 1933 but they might overshoot and get 1789.
Just hope nobody does a Napoleon…
Barron is way too tall.
Napoleon was actually about average height for the time. The shortness thing was just British (?) war propaganda to, for lack of a less on the nose term, belittle him in the public consciousness.
Barron IS still freakishly tall, though. He should either stop doing that or become really good at basketball or volleyball.
Not to go off on a quite wild tangent from societal collapse but I think beyond propaganda Napoleon was often flanked by tall and hand-picked elite guards and ironically also old aristocracy generals themselves tall from richer diet and so appeared short in comparison.
but isn’t their strategy literally how they have 90 percent of the wealth? seems a crushingly effective strategy. what do you suppose their downfall looks like? does it happen before or after ours?
There’s a limit, and at this rate we are bound to get there eventually.
Look at it this way…either there is a finite amount of money, and the more it is amassed by a handful of people, the less there is for others to survive. Or there is an infinite amount of money, and it’s worthless.
There really should’ve been a point of exponentially diminishing returns on personal wealth, like a long time ago. There shouldn’t have been any super-rich after the steel barons of the early 20th century. You’d think we would’ve learned our lesson then. Especially since by then we had universal suffrage, and not just white wealthy male landowners were voting.
I got news for you. We can already store food for dozens of years, if not a hundred in mylar bags with O2 absorbers. With enough money you could store enough food for you, security, families, and all supplies to repair and maintain an underground bunker for a lifetime, easily.
Elon literally built a doomsday retreat in Texas, where most of the women he’s fathered children live. as well as most of his children.
some notable exceptions, Grimes isnt there, nor the child who became Trans. for obvious reasonsI didn’t realize he was in the flds
The participants identified a negative feedback loop, whereby the government’s failure to tax wealth effectively means it lacks sufficient revenue to uphold the social contract by which strong public services, an effective social safety net and a healthy economy provide people with decent living standards.
Trust in politics then declines further, politicians avoid honest discussions of the underlying problems and what to do about them, and the system’s legitimacy is increasingly questioned as the social contract collapses.
That’s a nice story, but there’s been plenty of even less egalitarian societies. Pretty much all of the ones in written history, actually.
More likely, in the short term a new, more coercive “social contract” will be rotated in (if the trend continues). Heck, we’re already seeing it a bit in the US. Now showing fealty to the president is more important than public relations for a lot of companies and billionaires.
It’s hard to imagine, but modern inequality is actually very extreme in historical context
From a quick skim, that’s not actually what this says. It’s about wealth tending to concentrate in historical societies until there’s a catastrophe. The graph of estimated wealth inequality included takes an absolute nosedive in the 20th century before starting to climb back up a bit, and it’s still shown way lower than in the bad old days.
Keep in mind that ancient societies, at their worst, were mostly slaves, with just enough free people to beat them into submission. (At their best, you get some merchant republics and loosely overseen peasant communities, but no actual democracies)
The ownership class reading this: “…the training wheels are coming off, boys. It’s time we really kick this thing into high gear. We’re running out of time. Get your affairs in order—and by that I mean pick which if your mistresses will be your concubines on your floating golden fortress.”
“Understood.”
The group: “‘we’re the fuckin worst’ on three—one, two, three!
All:
“WE’RE THE FUCKING WORST!”
Generic white guy #1: “Alright, good hustle. Now go out there and fuckin murder some lower class people! This death machine ain’t gonna run itself! lol obviously im kidding, we were born into a machine that already runs itself and we were just the dumb lucky bastards born into the positions we’re in. But we deserve it!
Generic white guy #12: woah, Tom, you thought a little too much there. I’m afraid…we’re gonna have to take away the “#1” from your position. We worked hard to get where we are today! Don’t you EVER suggest there is an inherent flaw in a hierarchical system! You will be punished severely for even MAKING a reference to some FAKE injustice in our system! You are now #4. Other Tom, congratulations, now you’re #1. You must be very proud to hold this position.
Previously Generic white guy #4: this is an honor. I deserve this.
$1Trillion dollars wiped off the stock market? NBD, just push the AI more, so we can be free from the labour(ers). So cooked.
That money is just somewhere else.
“within the next decade” sounds like an unnecessarily long view on it. Next Christmas will come within the next decade too but it doesn’t mean it’ll be 10 years from now.
I can think of a couple of ways to fix that.
Have an additional one
In before lemmy.world bootlickers delete these comments for “inciting violance.”
How is a wealth tax violence?
Touché
“Boris Johnson with his Russian connections and Brexit is innocent, if you think he is…”
Already there.
