The current US government guarantees this, what the next one does … no one knows. The times Europe could count on the US as a reliable political force are over (not saying it was always a positive one, just reliable). I am glad the EU’s focus is now more on getting independent from all the big players, but it should happen because it is better for the EU not because of the orange threat.
The EU has imported less LNG in the second half of 2023 then 2022. LNG is just more expensive then pipeline gas, so it is the first to go. Furthermore the EU has relativly little electricity generation from coal and most of it will be replaced by clean electricity. Heat pump sales are also rising quickly, with a lot of countries in the EU phasing them out. So gas consumption is going to fall and with that LNG imports.
Don’t forget industrial uses though. The heat needed will still be supplied by gas as opposed to electricity most of the time, as it is cheaper. We need proper emission import taxes and supply chain surveillance to protect the EU industries as they decarbonize.
So there will remain a slower declining base use, opposed to households.
