Clear-air turbulence, which is invisible and unpredictable, is becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change.
Studies have found a 55% increase in severe clear-air turbulence over the North Atlantic since 1979, with similar increases over the continental USA.
The warming climate is strengthening wind shear in the jet streams, which is a major driver of increased clear-air turbulence.
Convection caused by rising heat, particularly over oceans, is disrupting the fast-moving jet streams and leading to more turbulence.
Climate models project a doubling or tripling of severe turbulence in the jet streams in the coming decades if climate change continues as expected.
The increase in turbulence poses safety risks, as demonstrated by a 2024 Singapore Airlines incident that injured 83 passengers and resulted in one fatality.
Passengers are advised to keep their seatbelts fastened even when the seatbelt sign is off, as turbulence can strike suddenly and unexpectedly.
The FAA has documented 163 serious turbulence injuries to passengers and crew between 2009 and 2022.
The jet streams, which commercial airliners fly through, can both help and hinder flights by pushing them across the Atlantic or slowing them down.
Rising greenhouse gas levels, which are the highest in at least 800,000 years, are the primary driver behind the warming climate and resulting increase in turbulence.
LLM summary:
And it’s not just CAT, aircraft are having to delay landings and take offs or reroute because of heat.
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