In light of new data showing China's population shrinking for the second year running, a Shanghai-based think tank has drastically changed its 2100 forecast.
The main problem is that most countries don’t have their economic system set up for it. The retirement system also in many cases is not sustainable with a shrinking population. This is going to cause a lot of pain and probably countries will start out with policies aiming to increase birth rates to attempt to maintain the status quo.
You’re going to face a lot of resistance trying to actually adapt economic policies to a shrinking population. Especially from older people.
Japan and Italy are both going through this right now. I’m not sure its going particularly well, so I think you are generally correct.
We should be putting much more effort into figuring out how to manage this transition, because its both completely necessary, and inevitable.
I think if you talk to people in the west they would say the year 2000 is better than now.
They have cheap housing/ rent, the country is safe, plenty of jobs. Sounds great. The only issue japan is having is that gdp isn’t increasing but from an individual person point of view things seem better.
Sounds great. The only issue japan is having is that gdp isn’t increasing but from an individual person point of view things seem better.
So if you rely on a narrow view of what success looks like (for example, only considering GDP growth), it would be considered not good, but from a lived experience, its fine.
It makes sense that an economy that overshot what its population growth rate can support, it needs to contract.
The main problem is that most countries don’t have their economic system set up for it. The retirement system also in many cases is not sustainable with a shrinking population. This is going to cause a lot of pain and probably countries will start out with policies aiming to increase birth rates to attempt to maintain the status quo.
You’re going to face a lot of resistance trying to actually adapt economic policies to a shrinking population. Especially from older people.
Japan and Italy are both going through this right now. I’m not sure its going particularly well, so I think you are generally correct. We should be putting much more effort into figuring out how to manage this transition, because its both completely necessary, and inevitable.
Japan is like being in the year 2000.
I think if you talk to people in the west they would say the year 2000 is better than now.
They have cheap housing/ rent, the country is safe, plenty of jobs. Sounds great. The only issue japan is having is that gdp isn’t increasing but from an individual person point of view things seem better.
So if you rely on a narrow view of what success looks like (for example, only considering GDP growth), it would be considered not good, but from a lived experience, its fine.
It makes sense that an economy that overshot what its population growth rate can support, it needs to contract.