Its a good thing and we should stop wringing hands over declining population. This is the singular way in which we can mantain a habitable planet for humans, is to have fewer humans.
Pass sensible immigration policies and it becomes a non-issue.
The main problem is that most countries don’t have their economic system set up for it. The retirement system also in many cases is not sustainable with a shrinking population. This is going to cause a lot of pain and probably countries will start out with policies aiming to increase birth rates to attempt to maintain the status quo.
You’re going to face a lot of resistance trying to actually adapt economic policies to a shrinking population. Especially from older people.
Japan and Italy are both going through this right now. I’m not sure its going particularly well, so I think you are generally correct. We should be putting much more effort into figuring out how to manage this transition, because its both completely necessary, and inevitable.
Japan is like being in the year 2000.
I think if you talk to people in the west they would say the year 2000 is better than now.
They have cheap housing/ rent, the country is safe, plenty of jobs. Sounds great. The only issue japan is having is that gdp isn’t increasing but from an individual person point of view things seem better.
Sounds great. The only issue japan is having is that gdp isn’t increasing but from an individual person point of view things seem better.
So if you rely on a narrow view of what success looks like (for example, only considering GDP growth), it would be considered not good, but from a lived experience, its fine.
It makes sense that an economy that overshot what its population growth rate can support, it needs to contract.
This some eco-fascist shit, no humans aren’t the real virus you Ra’as Al’Ghoul ideating dingus.
Less people just means more work that has to be done by all those machines that directly contribute to the climate crisis via power consumption.
ISTG people be rooting for population decline to fix climate change as if it wasn’t what caused the industrial revolution that got us into this mess in the first fucking place.
Ah yes. Sensible immigration policies for countries with declining populations is eco-facism. Daddy chill.
Cheering global population decline when the major contributors to global population are low pollution per person countries outside of the west is indeed ecofascism ya context avoidant nonce.
We should invite them in then. We’ve got the infrastructure and education systems built. Would be a shame not to use them.
Exactly. Natural attrition is the nicest way to restore balance.
Japan is having a demographic crash and China is getting jealous… China, you’re a cool kid when you’re being you - you don’t always need to ape Japan.
Hardly the only two countries. In the US it’s only masked by immigrants. Fertility is even coming down in most parts of the third world.
It’s mainly attributable to women’s improved education, career prospects, and access to contraception, plus declining infant mortality. Every single one of these factors is a good thing, but the combination of them will lead to a global demographic crunch over the next century.
I disagree with your statement that it’s “masked” by immigrants - I think immigration is a legitimate solution… but I don’t disagree with your causes - especially wealth inequality/declining career prospects for everyone.
This must come as a surprise to “pro-family” conservatives but being ground into dust by your employer doesn’t really get the mojo flowing.
When all the countries go below replacement levels, where are we going to get the immigrants from then? Outer space?
If all countries go below replacement levels we’ll be in a wonderful position because we’ll be able to feed and provide for everyone. That’s a looong way off though.
Not necessarily. Pension systems will be strained, many economies of scale might break down, infrastructure might become too expensive to maintain with reduced taxpayer funding. Most young people will work to support old people leaving little leftover economic potential for anything else.
A lot of people think that we can solve it with automation, but initial investment required to do that might become too expensive before it becomes necessary.
Anyone projecting 75 years into the future is just making things up and doesn’t need to be covered as a news story.
U mad?
Its simple demographics. China hasn’t run out of kids, they did that 20 years ago after 1 child policy had been in effect for over 20 years. China is running out of adults on their 20s and 30s. They don’t have the enough people in the right age range to replace their numbers even if they could get young adults to have more kids (hint they are not convincing anyone.)
China is currently one of the fastest aging nations on the planet and it’s only going to get worse.
That’s going to be an issue in 10-20 years. Who the fuck knows what it’s going to be like 75 years from now. We’re talking about a span of time as long as Communist China has existed. 75 years ago computers barely existed.
Science, science can predict it. We have models that were created over 40 years ago that predicted current global warming trends.
We have models that accurately predict population trends as well. But it’s pretty simple, when you have an agrarian based economy people tend to have many children because they are helpful around the farm. When a society urbanizes having a dozen kids is now a burden and birth rates plummet.
China urbanized within a generation. Stack on the effects of the one child policy and they are no longer reproducing at a rate to replace their current population.
Social sciences and hard sciences are not the same thing. Social “sciences” are largely unfalsifiable and dominated by the “unless modified by human action” caveat that breaks predictions. You can predict very general trends like “fewer births”, but in 1949 you couldn’t look at the populations of Mongolia, China, and South Korea and know that they would have vastly different birth rates 75 years later.
Nah I’m sure they’ll run out of ethnic minorities eventually.
